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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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