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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 23 January 20
COAL-BASED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES 95% IN 2019 - PROFIT PAKISTAN TODAY
Coal-based power generation jumped 94.5 percent to 2,030 Gigawatt hours (GWh) in the year to November 2019, taking its share in the country’s ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
INDIA: COAL PRODUCTION FROM CAPTIVE MINES RAISES 24% OUTPUT IN APRIL TO DECEMBER - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first nine months of the ongoing financial year was up 24% year-on-year (y-o-y) at 40.93 million tonne (M ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It seems that we are finally seeing whitish smoke as far as the trade feud between the US and China is concerned, while following this much anticip ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
IRON ORE - 5 THINGS TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie identifies five trends that will impact the iron ore industry.
Slower demand growth (especially in China) and a decen ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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