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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
BIMCO: LOW-SULPHUR FUEL SALE JUMPS TO A 70% SHARE IN SINGAPORE, AS THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP KICKS IN
The final quarter of 2019 marked a massive decline of HSFO sales, as the industry transitioned into compliance of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap (IMO2020 ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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