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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 12 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The recent Coronavirus outbreak in China has led to a global health emergency by World Health Organization and it is yet to be seen how long the ph ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
CHANGES IN LNG MARKET COULD UNDERCUT PLANS FOR NEW JAPANESE COAL PLANTS - CLYDE RUSSELL
Reuters: Clyde Russell
The collapse in the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia is a short-term phenomenon that may wel ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY SEES FREIGHT MARKETS IN A COMPLETE STATE OF COLLAPSE AS DEMAND GETS PARALYZED DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK - ALLIED
With China and the world still trying to contain the effects and come to terms with the Wuhan novel coronavirus outbreak, the shipping industry see ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION IN 2019 - BANCHERO COSTA
In a worrying development, global steel production slowed down considerably in the fourth quarter of 2019. In the final 3 months of 2019, total cru ...
Sunday, 09 February 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA STRUGGLED, A 50,000DWT SHIP FIXING A COAL RUN FROM EAST KALIMANTAN TO INDIA AT $2,000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market endured another dreadful week of calamitous rate level falls, as the usual season low Q1 period combined with rece ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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