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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 14 February 20
IS THE US COAL INDUSTRY COMPLETELY BURNED OUT? -FORBES
This is the fourth of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover ...
Friday, 14 February 20
FITCH RTGS: GLOBAL PORTS VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS - RELATED VOLUME DECLINES
Global ports will see reduced trade volumes as a result of the coronavirus, COVID-19, which would become more severe should Chinese production take ...
Thursday, 13 February 20
INDIA: MAJOR PORTS SHOW MUTED GROWTH IN CARGO AS THERMAL COAL VOLUME SLIDES 15% - BUSINESS STANDARD
A sharp slide of 15 per cent in thermal coal volumes weighed on the performance of major ports during the period of April-January of FY20. The majo ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
REFINING SET FOR A CHALLENGING 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Downstream isn’t the glamorous end of the oil business. And in Big Oil, it’s typically dwarfed by upstream. Yet having been forced to r ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
COAL INDIA WILL EXCEED LAST YEAR'S PRODUCTION FIGURES: OFFICIAL - PTI
Despite coal production being hampered at Dipka mines due to prolonged rains, Coal India Ltd will exceed last year’s production figures, a to ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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