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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 18 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND ITS IMPACT ON YOUR CONTRACT - CAN YOU RELY ON 'FORCE MAJEURE'? - INCE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (officially t ...
Monday, 17 February 20
IMO-2020 SULPHUR CAP - ISSUES TO CONSIDER PRIOR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CARRIAGE BAN ON 1 MARCH 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
With the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap now in force, members should bear in mind another significant date in relation to the ‘carriage ban&rsqu ...
Monday, 17 February 20
COVID-19: THE EFFECT OF THIS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY ON CHARTERPARTY TERMS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Is it useful to compare the COVID-19 with earlier disease outbreaks?
A comparison with the Ebola outbreak ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - REUTERS
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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