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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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