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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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