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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Sunday, 23 February 20
SHIPPING INDUSTRY FACES $370 MILLION HIT FROM NEW PANAMA CANAL CHARGE - REUTERS
A new “freshwater” charge that came in this month to help the Panama Canal cope with climate change will cost the shipping industry up ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY CJK, AT $7,600 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market found little to cheer about this week as it again endured remarkable lows. The Atlantic continued to improve, with ...
Saturday, 22 February 20
THE SURPRISING MOVE IN MARINE FUEL SPREADS - ING
Middle distillates tank
One of the biggest surprises since the implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulphur regulati ...
Friday, 21 February 20
CAPE: AVERAGE NOMINAL DAILY EARNINGS STILL ADMITTEDLY UNCHANGED W-O-W AT BELOW US$3000 - FEARNLEYS
CAPE
The worst may just about be over for the big ships. Average nominal daily earnings still admittedly unchanged w-o-w at below US$3k, but sent ...
Friday, 21 February 20
INDIA: POTENTIAL INVESTORS SEEK MORE CLARITY ON COMMERCIAL COAL MINING NORMS - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Potential private investors have sought more clarity on the pricing mechanism proposed for the much-anticipated auction for commercial coal mining. ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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