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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 26 February 20
AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL COAL GIANTS EXIT SOUTH AFRICA, ESKOM TO DEPEND ON TWO MINERS FOR 70% OF ITS SUPPLY - BUSINESS INSIDER
While some of its politicians continue to imagine that coal has a future in South Africa, two key developments from the real world show that securi ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR REGISTERED A NET PROFIT OF US$20 MILLION FOR FY 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur, one of the largest coal mining company in Indonesia, has recorded an US$882 million revenue for FY 2019, 1% lower compared t ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quart ...
Monday, 24 February 20
COULD SOME VLSFO FUELS BE BANNED? - GIBSON
The run up to the implementation of the new IMO rules on marine fuels from1st January 2020 had owners and charterers analysing the vari ...
Monday, 24 February 20
CHINA SAYS MAJOR COAL FIRMS RESTORE 95% OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY - REUTERS
China’s coal companies controlled by the central government have resumed operations and are back at more than 95% of their capacity, an offic ...
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Showing 1106 to 1110 news of total 6871 |
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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