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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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