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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 05 March 20
INDONESIA'S BUKIT ASAM 2019 OUTPUT RISES 10.2% Y/Y - REUTERS
PT Bukit Asam, Indonesia’s state-owned coal miner, said on Wednesday its output in 2019 rose 10.2% to 29.1 million tonnes.
Coa ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEEING REMOTELY - IN SAFETY: BUREAU VERITAS PERFORMS FIRST SURVEY BY DRONE - BUREAU VERITAS
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore (BV), a world leader in testing, inspection and certification (TIC) services has completed its first survey by ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
AN EPIDEMIC OF UNCERTAINTY - THE CORONAVIRUS AND FORCE MAJEURE - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do the effects of the coronavirus give rise to legitimate force majeure claims in connection with shipbuilding contracts ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA IMPORTED 76.8 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL FOR JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2020; UP 3.4% YOY - REFINITIV | BC
The COVID-19 crisis has been gripping China already for almost two months now. It’s having a huge negative impact on the economy, and this is ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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