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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 06 March 20
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Thursday, 05 March 20
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Thursday, 05 March 20
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Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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