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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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