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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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