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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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