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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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