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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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