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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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