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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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