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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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Showing 1071 to 1075 news of total 6871 |
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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