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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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