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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
Monday, 20 July 20
COAL INDIA LAUNCHES SPECIAL CATEGORY OF E-AUCTION FOR COAL IMPORTERS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) on Friday launched a special category of e-auction for importers of coal. This is in line with the government’s declaration ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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