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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 29 July 20
2019 U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FALLS TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1978 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal production totaled 706 million short tons (MMst), a 7% decrease from the 756 MMst mined in 2018. Last year’s production wa ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk sector is beginning to recover from reduced SnP activity recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The table below illustrates that appro ...
Tuesday, 28 July 20
DEUTSCHE BANK TO END GLOBAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN COAL MINING BY 2025 - REUTERS
Deutsche Bank, in a revamp of its policies for fossil fuels, said on Monday that it would end business activities worldwide related to coal mining ...
Monday, 27 July 20
IEEFA ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2020: COAL, LNG, PETROCHEMICAL SECTORS FACE POOR OUTLOOK AND UPHILL BATTLE FOR INVESTORS
Fossil fuel industries were becoming less financially attractive even before the global coronavirus pandemic
Three major fossil fuel ...
Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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