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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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