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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 06 August 20
SUPRAMAX MARKET CONTINUED SIDEWAYS TREND, AND LITTLE INSPIRING NEWS APPEAR - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is presently a small correction in rates, but overall levels are up from previous week mainly due to increased demand in the Eas ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITING BIDS FOR MIN 3,600-MAX 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) inviting bids for 80,000 Tons (MT) Min 3,600~Max 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal f ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
NO NEW MINING LICENSES - A REMINDER TO GOVERNORS IN INDONESIA - SSEK
Indonesia’s acting Director General of Mining and Coal (“DGMC”) has issued a letter to the country’s provincial Governors t ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
AUGUST 2020 HBA HITTING ITS LOWEST LEVELS IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of August plunged 30.73% YoY, hitting its lowest levels in history and highlighting ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and de ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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