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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 12 August 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL DECREASE BY 29% FROM 2019 LEVELS TO 502 MMST - EIA
U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020.
EIA expec ...
Tuesday, 11 August 20
BHP COAL ASSETS WORTH A BILLION LESS THAN JUST TWO YEARS AGO - IEEFA
Another global investor, the UK’s biggest public pension fund NEST, has withdrawn funds from BHP this week because the company is profiting & ...
Monday, 10 August 20
COAL IMPORT DROPS 43% IN JULY OWING TO HIGH STOCKPILE AT PITHEADS, PLANTS - PTI
“The market participants seem to have adopted a wait and watch approach and are currently looking for a direction. We do not expect to see an ...
Saturday, 08 August 20
GLOBAL COAL POWER PUZZLE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker has put another nail in the coffin for the coal-carrying fleet with its finding that ...
Friday, 07 August 20
PEABODY'S $1.42 BILLION WRITE-DOWN CONCEDES COAL MINES HAVE LITTLE VALUE AND DIM FUTURE - IEEFA
Trouble at biggest mine in Powder River Basin speaks volumes about state of industry
Peabody Energy, the world’s largest priva ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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