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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 19 August 20
MISC MARKS ITS MAIDEN FORAY INTO MAJOR DEEP-WATER PROJECT IN LATIN AMERICA WITH MERO 3 FPSO
MISC Berhad (MISC) is pleased to announce its acceptance of Letter of Intent (LOI) from Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) for the provisi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS | INTERMODAL
Since the Covid-19 outbreak, governments and central banks around the globe have been using their ammunition and stimulus packages to keep their ec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
Accordi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN SUBDUED THIS FISCAL AMID WEAK DEMAND, HIGH INVENTORY - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Coal offtake is improving gradually as lockdown eases
Coal prices are expected to remain subdued to weak demand and high inventory l ...
Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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