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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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