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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 29 August 20
COAL INDIA'S FUEL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS ABOUT 20% IN APR-JUL: PTI
State-owned Coal India”s fuel supply to the power sector registered a decline of 19.5 per cent to 126.30 million tonnes (MT) in the April-Jul ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
SOUTH KOREAN BROKERAGE FIRM KOREA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES TO STOP ALL COAL BUSINESS - KOREA HERALD
South Korean brokerage firm Korea Investment & Securities has decided to stop its investments in coal, in line with the Moon Jae-in administrat ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 985,000 TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR NOVEMBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 985,000 ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS SET REGION-WIDE RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL OF 23 PERCENT BY 2025 - ASEAN POST
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set an ambitious target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from renewable so ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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