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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 04 September 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN MIN 5,700 NCV COAL FOR NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 260,000 MT Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal November, 2020 loading. Acc ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
BRINGING SERVICES OF FTCCI CLOSER TO THE EXPORTERS AT GMR AIR CARGO COMPLEX AT SHAMSHABAD
Press Release: “FTCCI Trade Facilitation Services at your doorstep now” says J.S. Chandrashekar, IRS., Principal Commissioner of Custom ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7% IN APR-AUG; OFF TAKE DIPS 13.4% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
In the month of August coal off take also increased 9.3% y-o-y to 44.34 MT as compared with 40.57 MT in the same period last year.
C ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The imminent global shift towards eco-friendliness has caused divide among the shipping community because there is no outlined, clear-cut way via w ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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