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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 02 September 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE DIVES FURTHER IN SEPTEMBER DUE TO SUBDUED DEMAND & GLOBAL OVERSUPPLY
Subdued demand & global oversupply pushed down this month's HBA
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
WHY INDIA CAN'T MATCH THE GULF REGION'S RECORD-LOW SOLAR TARIFFS - IEEFA
5-10% annual decline in tariffs estimated for the next decade
A number of countries in the Gulf region have set record-low prices for solar in ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long ...
Monday, 31 August 20
DEFECTIVE PASSAGE PLANNING: UNSEAWORTHINESS OR A NAVIGATIONAL DECISION? THE CMA CGM LIBRA QUESTION SAILS ON TO THE UK SUPREME COURT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The UK Supreme Court has granted leave to appeal the recent decision in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG ( ...
Sunday, 30 August 20
PANAMAX - THIS WEEK THE DEMAND HAS PICKED UP, BUT THE TONNAGE LIST IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
More or less flat from previous week, with cape rates moving from US$ 19,500 to 18,900 on average. West Australia however being more ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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