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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 05 September 20
INDIA WON'T KICK ITS COAL HABIT SO EASILY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
India has traditionally considered itself lucky to have been endowed with abundant coal reserves, which it has sought to use to meet its energy nee ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
FINANCING COMPLETE FOR 900MW FIFTH PHASE OF MASSIVE DUBAI SOLAR PARK: ARABIAN BUSINESS
Saudi-based ACWA Power on Thursday announced it has completed the signing of all financing agreements for the fifth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashi ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
POLISH COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO FALL BY 7 MLN TONNES NEXT YEAR: MINISTER - REUTERS
Poland’s demand for coal is expected to fall by around 7 million tonnes next year, or more than 10% of annual hard coal production, after a d ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
PAKISTAN'S NEW 27-YEAR POWER PLAN RISKS LOCKING IN LONG-TERM OVERCAPACITY, LEAVING IMPORTED COAL AND LNG PLANTS STRANDED - IEEFA
Wind and solar, the country’s cheapest source of new generation, also overlooked
Pakistan risks locking itself into building m ...
Friday, 04 September 20
IN A DEEPENING DEBT HOLE OF $34 BILLION, INDONESIA’S PLN MUST STOP DIGGING - IEEFA
The utility has added IDR100 trillion in debt annually for the last five years
Utilities globally started changing the way they do business ye ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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