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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 26 August 20
ASIAN COAL PRICES LIKELY TO REMAIN DEPRESSED SAY TRADERS, ANALYSTS - REUTERS
Asian coal prices, which have fallen around 25% this year as power demand slumped due to the coronavirus outbreak, are unlikely to move higher befo ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
WORLD COAL EXPORTS: INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HAVE COME UNDER PRESSURE AS THERMAL COAL PRICES WEAKEN - REPORT
Indonesia’s exports to decline sharply from record highs
Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, sellin ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
PENDING SOUTH KOREA LEGISLATION COULD FORCE HALT TO COUNTRY’S COAL PLANT EXPORT DEALS - KOREA ECONOMIC DAILY
South Korea’s parliament looks set to pass new legislation to ban financing on foreign coal power projects, putting all overseas coal-fired p ...
Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.&nb ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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