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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 20 August 20
MINER BHP CONFIRMS PLANS TO EXIT THERMAL COAL SECTOR - THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The head of mining giant BHP has laid out plans for a reshaping of its global operations by seeking to quit thermal coal mining, offload some cokin ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
LONDON RETAINS ARBITER CROWN - BALTIC EXCHANGE | HFW
Fears that the UK’s decision to leave the European Union would dent the reputation of the nation’s capital as the leader in maritime ar ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
U.S. COAL STOCKPILES STEADILY INCREASE AFTER REACHING LOWEST LEVEL IN A DECADE IN 2019 - EIA
After reaching their lowest level in more than a decade in March 2019, U.S. coal stockpiles steadily increased to 152 million tons in April 2020, r ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.26 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.92 points Monday, down 0.26 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL INDIA TRADE UNIONS DEFER DAY-LONG STRIKE: PTI
The unions had decided to go on strike against the commercial mining and the proposed divestment or buyback of shares of Coal India Ltd (CIL).
...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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