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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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