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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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