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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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