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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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