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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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