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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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