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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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