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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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