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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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