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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
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KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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