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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
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KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
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Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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