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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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