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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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