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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 20 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are moving towards the end of the year, the overall deal landscape of the dry bulk sector corresponding to the second half of 2020 (up to dat ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff s ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 128.72 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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