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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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