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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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