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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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