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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
Capesize
A rather indifferent week for the Capesize market, with BCI 5TC figure finishing the week with slight losses of 0.8%. The Atlantic enj ...
Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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