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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
Capesize
A rather indifferent week for the Capesize market, with BCI 5TC figure finishing the week with slight losses of 0.8%. The Atlantic enj ...
Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
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Showing 716 to 720 news of total 6871 |
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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