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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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