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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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