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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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