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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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