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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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