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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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