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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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